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  • Competition: Best International Prediction of 2014 | Infinite Ideas
    an area of interest in which you would like to make a forecast for example technology or politics Look into the history of the evolution of the entity or subject you ve chosen to the current time Try to identify causes or strong influencing factors most likely to affect outcomes in this field Make your own rating of probabilities of possible outcomes based on this causal analysis and choose pathways and outcomes which have strong probabilities Closing date is 5 September 2014 The winner will be notified by 19 September and their idea published on this blog and on the Institute of Futurology site The subscription to the FutureFinder System for Individuals will be shared with the winner who will then be able to use the system without charge We re sorry but this competition has now closed Search Recent posts Alice in strategy land by Kate M Santon can help improve your business Career lessons from The Walking Dead be adaptable The pros and cons of self publishing your business book Zombie identification for beginners What would Rick do Ten career boosting tips from The Walking Dead Blog Post Categories 100 Management Models 15 5742 Days 6 Authentic leadership 10 Basil Bunting and A strong song tows us 8 Book publishing 51 Business and finance 128 Classic Wine Library 8 Codebreaking our future 6 Current events 37 Entertainment 39 Football Business 9 Game of Thrones on Business 22 Implementing ISO 9001 2015 5 Lifestyle 43 Nine visions of capitalism 14 Publishing for business 4 Sherry 6 Spirits distilled 8 The corporate wellness bible 1 The Diversity Dashboard 7 Uncategorized 4 Wine and spirits 30 Working With The Walking Dead 3 Archive Select Month April 2016 1 March 2016 2 February 2016 3 January 2016 5 December 2015 3 November

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/competition-best-international-prediction-2014/ (2016-05-01)
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  • The Depopulation Time Bomb | Infinite Ideas
    you today Like the inferences made from the data in Table 2 this fact may appear at first glance to be counter intuitive I referred earlier in looking at Table 1 to the meagre global rates of annual population increases this century Birth rates are falling all over the world in deeply entrenched trends rooted in the very nature of modern society A human depopulation time bomb is ticking Human population growth is decreasing at a rate which will imperil the global economy destabilise some societies and ultimately threaten humanity s prospects for survival US demographer and senior fellow at the New America Foundation Phillip Longman explains World population growth has already slowed dramatically over the last generation and is headed on course for absolute decline Indeed forecasts by the United Nations and others show the world population growth rate could well turn negative during the lifetimes of people now in their 40sand 50s 1 Longman is warning us that population growth for humanity is likely to turn negative around mid century This means the world s total population size would start to decrease in absolute terms If such a trend ever became irreversible it would eventually lead to the extinction of the human race Figure 3 The rise of world population to its projected peak in 2050 Figure 3 indicates that the total human population may peak in 2050 at nine billion and thereafter decline year after year decade after decade generation after generation It s not a comforting thought that Population Peak for the human race is probably just up ahead of us Shrinking nations and families conjure up nightmarish scenarios of a declining world population If sub replacement fertility rates across the world continue compounding century after century it s a mathematical certainty that the human race will one day become extinct The core fact is that global fertility rates are half what they were in 1972 This is disconcerting given that fertility rates are what keep the human race reproducing itself The fall in global fertility is the key global problem to address in this century The following data together brings home the extent of this trend bearing in mind that the replacement fertility rate is 2 1 children per women and that at the start of the 20 th century the global fertility rate was higher than five children per woman of child bearing age The world s population growth rate has fallen from 2 p a in the late 1960s to just over 1 today and is predicted to slow further to 0 7 by 2030 and then 0 4 by 2050 2 62 countries making up almost half the world s population now have fertility rates at or below the replacement rate of 2 1 including most of the industrial world and Asian powers like China Taiwan and South Korea 3 Most European countries are on a path to population ageing and absolute population decline 4 in fact no country in Europe is demographically replacing its population 5 If Europe s current fertility rate of around 1 5 births per woman persists until 2020 this will result in 88 million fewer Europeans by the end of the century 6 Spain has the lowest fertility rates ever recorded Russia and most of the Balkans and Eastern Europe are facing a fall in the size of their populations of between 13 35 in the next four decades with China s starting to fall between 2030 2035 and Thailand s after about 2040 7 Japan s fertility rate is 1 4 children per women one of the lowest China s fertility rate is between 1 5 and 1 65 Cuba has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world Italy once the seat of the Roman Empire that ruled most of the known world has a disastrously low fertility rate of 1 2 Since 1975 Brazil s fertility rate has dropped nearly in half to just 2 27 children per woman 8 By mid century China could lose 20 30 of its population every generation 9 By 2050 the median age of the world s population will be 38 years in Europe 47 China 45 in North America and Asia about 41 10 It s the scale of the depopulation problem that is daunting Longman explains All told some 59 countries comprising roughly 44 percent of the world s total population are currently not producing enough children to avoid population decline and the phenomenon continues to spread By 2050 according to the latest United Nations projections 75 percent of all countries even in underdeveloped regions will be reproducing at below replacement levels 11 Consequently he s expecting the world population to peak around 2050 12 A silent demographic revolution is happening to our world Associated with human depopulation is the inevitable ageing of the global population 13 This will have dramatic long term impacts on economies Population trends drive changes across a range of fields from economics and finances to politics from sociology to international relations Ageing populations spend less and produce less depressing business demand Societies in Asia Europe and the Americas are turning grey and there are concerns about the drain on public expenditure and the loss of national productivity which will ensue Population ageing will place added burdens on both government finances and the working generation This affects the economy directly There is a reasonably robust theory that suggests people accumulate wealth between the ages of 30 and 60 for retirement after which they tend to save less or dis save 14 Longman establishes a link between demography and economics early in his landmark book The Empty Cradle Capitalism has never flourished except when accompanied by population growth 15 Businesses he says go where populations are growing not where they re declining Why Because there ll be more demand for their goods More people create more demand for the products capitalists sell and more supply of the labor capitalists buy 16 Here

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/depopulation-time-bomb/ (2016-05-01)
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  • RoboFuture? Ten questions about machine intelligence | Infinite Ideas
    as they see fit The idea is to highlight the nature of machine intelligence compared to human consciousness While information technology has already attained unbelievable and revolutionary utility in today s world human intelligence in my view is far superior in virtually every facet to the intelligence within computer systems except for the processing aggregating calculating storing and distribution of data at blindingly fast speeds There have been several decades of worldwide research and development in the field of computers and so it is fair game to dig deep at this juncture as to the kind of intelligence which has actually been produced by computers in practice Here they are then ten questions to ask any man made machine Has machine intelligence ever independently produced an original idea theory philosophy or discovered any new principle or law of existence This question concerns the capacity for sustained original creative thought Has machine intelligence ever produced a unique non programmed story or created any imaginative literary work This question relates to the power of imagination Has a computer ever spontaneously said I love you and meant it Q3 is about personal real time communication Has a computer ever said I m sorry and meant it This question relates to empathy the skills of listening and emotional intelligence in general Has machine intelligence ever invented or coined a new word or term Q5 concerns original linguistic talent Has machine intelligence ever made an independent non programmed decision about how to act based on conscience This question is about ethics and a sense of justice Has a machine ever come up with a solution to a tricky social problem solved a crime or adjudicated in a complex legal dispute Q7 relates to the powers of deductive reasoning and lateral thinking Has technology itself ever invented new technology that is have machines ever produced new types of machine no human had previously thought of This question touches on the ability to be truly inventive Has a machine ever had a religious or spiritual experience an epiphany or eureka moment said a non programmed prayer exercised faith or known awe and wonder Q9 is about human spirituality Has a machine ever made a spontaneously personally motivated non programmed exchange with another being whether some form of trade or extended social interaction This question relates to the ability to engage in complex social economic and political activity as a social being Aside from investigating the many technical and philosophical questions relating to the evolving interface between human and machine intelligence these ten common sense questions show it would be well nigh impossible to mimic human consciousness and intelligence let alone recreate upload and surpass it as proposed by Kurzweil Besides do we really want to hand over control of civilization and human destiny to machinery Don t we want to use rather than become technology Note please feel free to send answers to any of these ten questions to ask machines to michael futurology co za Acknowledgments

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/robofuture-ten-questions-machine-intelligence/ (2016-05-01)
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  • Is God a futurist? | Infinite Ideas
    13 88 1 2 Non religious 13 58 0 7 Buddhism 6 92 1 3 Chinese religions 5 94 0 0 Ethnic religions 3 00 0 6 Sikh religion 0 35 1 4 Judaism 0 21 0 3 Other 0 32 N A In the table above only belief system population groups growing at a rate higher than 1 2 are growing faster than the world s population Non religious people make up only 13 58 of the world s population and that slice of the global pie is declining This means that decades of economic and cultural globalization by a largely secular West have not brought about a concomitant commensurate spread of non religious belief The four largest religious belief system groups namely Christianity Islam Hinduism and Buddhism together make up 75 99 of the world s population clearly a substantial majority In a nutshell then belief systems of the world are divided up as follows Top four religions by size 75 99 Non religious population 13 58 Other 10 43 Figure 1 Comparative size of religious and non religious populations in the world 2010 Figure 1 shows that the Hypothetical One is not in any danger of being forgotten any time soon Furthermore the future of religion will almost certainly be reinforced by a fundamental and intensifying global demographic trend namely population decline Depopulation is now occurring in many nations across the world Dr Phillip Longman demographer and author of The Empty Cradle 2004 points out that global fertility rates are half what they were in 1972 It is thought that total human population may peak in 2050 at nine billion and thereafter decline Bearing in mind that the human replacement fertility rate is 2 1 children per women it s alarming that 62 countries making up almost half the world s population now have fertility rates at or below this rate including most of the industrial world and Asian powers like China Taiwan and South Korea 2 At the start of the twentieth century by contrast the global fertility rate was higher than five children per woman of child bearing age The world s population growth rate has fallen from 2 p a in the late 1960s to just over 1 today and is predicted to slow further to 0 7 by 2030 and then 0 4 by 2050 3 Most European countries are on a path to population ageing and absolute population decline 4 in fact no country in Europe is demographically replacing its population 5 Given this grim demographic picture the role of pro natal belief system population groups including religious communities is likely to become much more significant in the evolution of the human species In the coming decades humanity will be wrestling to avoid the disastrous socio economic consequences of declining populations To halt population decline radical change in values and lifestyle practices will eventually be needed Human families and their critical procreative role will need to be strengthened The increasing influence of

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/god-futurist/ (2016-05-01)
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  • China's stocks fall putting global economy on edge | Infinite Ideas
    want to work for a pitiful pay cheque then someone else will Mao s regime forced millions into dire poverty and some are only now beginning to recover from this Let s for now put our assumptions about the working conditions aside Though definitely not a wholly capitalist country the People s Republic of China has benefited from Western economic influence While we outsource labour and other primary services to China China in turn benefits from what Western capitalism can provide Capitalism has allowed China to become one of the biggest economies in the world while still claiming to be outside the capitalist bubble So back to today Over the past fortnight the value of the yuan has been depreciating Since then trillions of dollars have been wiped from the FTSE What does this all mean for the future of the economy Perhaps China s financial stability was poorer than anticipated It would seem likely that the cheap labour and services that the West has been benefiting from for many years will now cost more Trading with China will become a more costly endeavour and this could fundamentally change the face of our manufacturing and primary services Once again our eyes are focused on those on Wall Street who are moving the intricate cogs that support the global economy To the uninitiated every person on the street what goes on is something of a mystery We are aware of the importance of the FTSE and the NYSE as well as how they have an important effect on the global economy Like a heart monitor in an intensive care unit the peaks and troughs of the FTSE index mean little to those who are not trained to recognise what it all means But we can all imagine that the 91bn that was wiped off the FTSE today is not positive for the global economy China is undoubtedly a superpower with great influence Western domination is being gradually usurped by China s infiltration of other economies Like dominoes when one is affected it runs the risk of knocking down the others We are making slow but progressive steps out of the recession that began in 2008 The memories however are still fresh in the minds of all who were affected many of whom lost their homes their jobs and their savings However this latest crisis develops the 2008 recession taught a valuable lesson capitalism affects everyone under its umbrella and often it is those that need help most who get hit the worst when times are hard Search Recent posts Alice in strategy land by Kate M Santon can help improve your business Career lessons from The Walking Dead be adaptable The pros and cons of self publishing your business book Zombie identification for beginners What would Rick do Ten career boosting tips from The Walking Dead Blog Post Categories 100 Management Models 15 5742 Days 6 Authentic leadership 10 Basil Bunting and A strong song tows us 8 Book publishing 51

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/chinas-stocks-fall-putting-global-economy-edge/ (2016-05-01)
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  • Capitalist leaders are called to account | Infinite Ideas
    beneficial to the economy and help those all the way at the bottom of the pyramid it is leading the way in demonstrating the worst aspects of capitalism greed and the misuse of power When companies such as Apple Google and Microsoft are now richer than the US government one looks to them to set a positive example of how capitalism can benefit not just those who work for the corporations but the government to whom they pay tax These are global corporations but they all began in Silicon Valley They are the very epitome of American capitalism at its best highlighting how small start ups can become global brands However these companies should also be a marker for how all companies in the capitalist food chain can not only be successful but create wealth and grow the economy Not all companies will be as successful as these but even small companies can take lessons from conscious capitalism Charles Hampden Turner and Fons Trompenaars in their new book Nine visions of capitalism suggest that Wealth is created when values are joined by meta values when for example workers receive higher wages for being more productive so there is money or value for everyone Customers provide more revenue that is shared between employees and investors Wealth is also created when products do not die and go to waste but become a cradle for another product The iPod is an excellent example of a product which has evolved and grown making way for better and smarter technology while maintaining the integrity of the original So Apple is leading the way You only have to look around you and you won t be far away from an Apple product This is demonstrative of capitalism being beneficial to the customer as well as the company There are many people who are loyal to the Apple brand However with great wealth comes great responsibility Apple and its chiefs must demonstrate a conscience in a world that is powered by wealth Back in June Taylor Swift called Apple to account when they said the they would not pay artists in the first few months of their music streaming service We don t ask you for free iPhones Please don t ask us to provide you with our music for no compensation she wrote in an open letter to the company Recognising the backlash that this would cause Apple quickly did a 180 on their policy and announced that they would pay royalties Case closed Nevertheless Swift proved that large companies are not infallible and that it pays to be seen as a company that is doing good Capitalism and the companies that contribute to the growth of wealth are not infallible but they are incredibly wealthy and powerful It will take more than Taylor Swift to bring down Wall Street Yet the conscious capitalism movement is growing and it s people like Swift and Sanders who have the platform to call those to account who should

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/capitalist-leaders-called-account/ (2016-05-01)
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  • Why immigrants succeed | Infinite Ideas
    British person This is not the case nor is immigration bad for the British economy If we send all the immigrants back to their homelands do we have to recall all the British who have moved abroad as well Charles Hampden Turner and Fons Trompenaars authors of Nine visions of capitalism state that In a land of strangers you are defined by what you do not where you come from Statistically immigrants in the UK contribute more to the economy than they take out in benefits suggesting that they re willing to to any job if it pays the bills whereas there are Britons who are rejecting work on the basis of either waiting for something better to come along or not wanting to lower themselves to clean toilets for example Hampden Turner and Trompenaars offer a broader evaluation on the effect of migration What is it that immigrants have that overcomes the prejudices against them They have at least two points of view or social contexts the one they brought with them and that of their adopted land Too many of us have just one Immigrants must strive to include their diverse views with our own It is when cultures collide that we learn not only about others but about ourselves Values are differences and immigrants know all about the differences they encounter daily They can encompass different points of view Immigrants are also more likely to be individualistic They have broken ties and moved away from old attachments but they are also more likely to be communal since their economic futures depend upon a network of fellow migrants and maintaining their close support They are prepared to work harder for less in order to survive That they better understand other differences between say sellers and buyers is not unexpected We saw that where East meets West in Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea and Malaysia the economies tend to be strong These populations have also learned from both sides Since birth rates have fallen in the affluent West we need educated immigrants to make up for this Of course immigrants are not always successful Some are crippled by prejudice or by culture shock or bring cultural practices with them that clash with majority values female genital mutilation for example Moving from one culture to another makes you or breaks you and anti immigrant feeling is easily aroused by the numbers of broken strangers many in prison some unemployed claiming benefits or before the courts Depending on their social class indigenous citizens may encounter more losers than winners and generalize from this Those who are different will not always be included Tolerance is not enough We should learn from immigrants Search Recent posts Alice in strategy land by Kate M Santon can help improve your business Career lessons from The Walking Dead be adaptable The pros and cons of self publishing your business book Zombie identification for beginners What would Rick do Ten career boosting tips from The Walking

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/immigrants-succeed/ (2016-05-01)
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  • Current events Archives » Page 3 of 7 » Infinite Ideas | Infinite Ideas | Page 3
    of time before this development is picked up by mass media with millions of viewers and becomes a variety of Reality TV with totals raised broadcast during the programme and with the whole culture celebrating innovation as a way of life Commercial TV could find a new source of revenue by taking 5 of the total raised So let us compare the democracy of our electoral process with the democratic potentials of crowdfunding How do these contrast Electoral process Crowdfunding process The first past the post system gives big advantages to the majority parties at the expense of all minority interests e g it takes 3 9 million UKIP voters to elect one solitary MP Most funds go to small minorities enabling them to nurture new ideas that go viral on the Internet with the potential to change everything through daring novelties and life changing creativity One party wins and another loses nearly everything in a zero sum game wherein gains and losses cancel each other out and power is wrested away from opponents in life shattering ways All parties win where the project succeeds entrepreneurs investors employees customers and the community Ideas have been transformed into new realities beneficial to their instigators and the crowd of enthusiastic supporters and cheerleaders The game is to achieve power over people get the electorate to buy your promises attack and rubbish your opponents and consign them to opposition benches The game is to achieve power through people use their funds to keep your promises and realize the ideals in your prospectus with their money and their moral support You seek to convert all those involved to your viewpoint The system is fiercely and relentlessly adversarial We are right and our opponents wrong foolish dangerous and destructive The least feared and hated party wins The Devil vies with the Deep Blue Sea The system is cooperative and co creative with investors as midwives of procreation and with only projects that are truly needed receiving funds Investors are seeking to improve their society and where they succeed they profit The system requires millions of pounds to operate large organizations This puts the electoral systems at the mercy of rich donors who buy access and expect a return for their money The system operates by funding thousands of good ideas and small organizations Funding goes not to power but to potential to the idea whose time has come to those with dreams to realize Large amounts of money from very few people buys continued dominance and conformity to what rich people demand Small amount of money from a wide variety of people fund a very diverse range of new ideas which change us radically Large investment portfolios tend to the lowest risk possible and to markets where prices can be administered by market domination Small investment portfolios can afford to stake less but risk much more on changing society for the better Dramatic success is possible The viewpoint in almost entirely quantitative Everyone wants just one thing and the answer is more The viewpoint is almost entirely qualitative Everyone wants to help their society but in different ways The attitude to minorities is that now they have been beaten they should yield to majority control They are losers and should be marginalized The attitude to minorities is that they are a potentially creative resource and come up with ideas the majority would never hazard Diversity is infinitely precious The whole purpose of politics is to realize your own economic self interest and asserting these aggressively is enough to win The whole purpose of crowdfunding is to realize meaningful ideals by offering these to the public for sharing with you Ideological politics is sterile because everything within one polarized extreme has been tried and one is not allowed to borrow from the rival viewpoint It is off limits Crowdfunding is an industry espousing radical ideas and hence borrows the vehicle private enterprise from the Right while the ideals are largely from the Left Any new political idea is a hybrid of Right and Left The argument is about redistribution and the power of government Can it confiscate what others have made What will this do to enterprise and motivation The argument is about pre distribution Might companies who promise their crowds to be fair to promote women to pay good wages train their people and be sustainable gain better access to crowdfunding Competition is the life blood of both politics and business We we all want more and some of this must be taken from our weaker brethren Diversity is the life blood of both politics and business Where we are sufficiently different invidious distinctions vanish and nearly all can succeed on their own terms What is unique about crowdfunding is that it starts even before a product or service has been made or any unit of currency spent It is an idea an abstraction and a value in our mind s eye We can share it with others discuss within the crowd what sort of world we want producing any number of wealth development and satisfactions It is a potential rebirth of the Puritan ethic insofar as it begins with the reason for our being and what we should do on earth and whom we should serve with the one life we have It is the potential sheet anchor of the Innovative Society Members of parliament have powers to help redesign capitalism as a beneficial force in our nation and insist that it builds industries which engage and develop us all Where every organization performs before an appreciative crowd the world is changed Charles Hampden Turner and Fons Trompenaars are the authors of Nine visions of capitalism with Tom Cummings It will be published on 7th September 2015 To preorder please email info infideas com To find out more about Charles Hampden Turner and Fons Tromenaars and their company please click here Will Prince Charles be an authentic leader 13 May 2015 by Catherine Holdsworth

    Original URL path: http://www.infideas.com/category/current-events/page/3/ (2016-05-01)
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